While we (I say as an American) critique this model of urbanization, we ought to recognize that there were similar vectors of development in the economic growth of the United States: displacement and forced migration of the Native populations of most of the land we settled and later urbanized; cheap labor from Europe, China, and Africa to build all the infrastructure; and displacement of Black Americans and the poor in cities for “urban renewal” projects like large highways and buildings as recently as the 1960s and 1970s, and of farms to make suburban subdivisions throughout the country since then (though admittedly, most American farmers were paid quite handsomely to sell their land to developers, though some of that land was simply requisitioned through eminent domain). And our growth, particularly after the second world war, was also driven by consumption and financed by debt and financial innovations like 30-year mortgages and credit cards.
On the environmental consequences of China’s urbanization, I’ll have another post soon, but also recall that our cities were rife with black smoke and our rivers literally caught fire because there were so many industrial pollutants emitted into them. And on food policy, again more forthcoming, but the Chinese have recently begun the import of the same fertilizers, industrialized food production techniques, genetically modified foods, and chemically-altered animal and plant products that allowed us to cope with the post-war loss of farmland to suburbanization (and a rising and increasingly wealthy population to feed).
The scale, speed, and political determination with which the Chinese are enacting policies that encourage these changes---rather than their mere substance---are probably the main points of difference. The questions we ought to be asking are (i) is it really worth it? And (ii) How could it be improved, including by learning lessons from the US experience?
From the Chinese government’s perspective, of course, this urban growth is worth it. Urbanization appears to be the most efficient way to change the currently impoverished state of rural areas---at least on the face of it. Meanwhile, an export-based economy has come with lots of vulnerabilities---namely, China is reliant on other countries’ consumption for its own growth and economic vitality. Urbanizing---and ideally, middle class-izing---China’s population will make its economy more dependent on domestic consumption and less on the vagaries and vicissitudes of foreign markets. It’s also China’s way of managing its population and population growth. The one-child policy has had many negative consequences and is slowly being relaxed in the wake of demographic shifts that are on the whole not very healthy (poor gender ratios and an aging population that will not be able to continue to power China’s economic engine). But, as described in an earlier post, the economic utility of children goes down in more dense, urban areas, where more children can in fact be greater liabilities.
To all of this add many of the points that Harvard economist Edward Glaeser raises in his 'Triumph of the City': urban areas account for more innovation; for healthier lifestyles and longer lives; and for smaller carbon footprints per capita. (This thing about greenness is only considering comparable purchasing power; i.e. a poor farmer who tills the land by hand will consume less energy than an urbanite who rides a subway and uses an elevator and other electronic appliances. However, that urbanite will use less energy than a suburbanite who drives a car to get anywhere).
Perhaps most consequentially, urbanization may be inevitable: it is happening throughout the world due to the changing nature of global economics. Government policies (like those in China) are just expediting what the market might do anyway.
From rural Chinese people's perspective, urbanization is a mixed bag: yes many are making money by selling their land, and yes, many are able to access more lucrative employment opportunities. But many more are being kicked off their land so that other, richer people can live more comfortably; many more are in turn forced to move to cities and staff unhealthy factories and live illegally at the urban fringe just to make ends meet; and many more are being uprooted from their families, social networks, and traditions while the social welfare infrastructure is being dismantled.
So, yes, there is definitely more China could do to specifically help rural areas and their people (much as the US hasn’t solved the issue of poverty in rural Appalachia or the Mississippi Delta) and also those that are being left out of the urban dream. But global urbanization is arguably inevitable---we might as well make the most of it and make sure it follows the best path possible.
In China’s urbanization process, what can be learned and improved?
First off, regulation can be very helpful. The US was on a downward environmental trajectory when, after lobbying from environmental groups, President Nixon created the Environmental Protection Agency in 1972, which did a great deal to reverse the trend in America by limiting pollutant emissions, mandating carpools and increasing energy efficiency, encouraging mass transit over car usage, and so forth. China really ought to take that page from the American playbook---and it slowly is putting major caps on its factories and encouraging mass transit development as a viable alternative to cars, for instance.
Similarly, only regulation can limit the harms of modified foodstuffs. There doesn’t seem to be much standing in the way of chemicals in American foods---what with the farm lobbies, Monsanto’s recent legislative victories, and the strength of the modified (and fast and junk) food lobbies. But America's Food and Drug Administration does a pretty good job ensuring that these foods aren't as bad as they could be. China could more easily plow through any such interest groups and more easily regulate the industry so that the scale of production is retained while safety and health standards are ensured.
On forced migration and displacement, I’m honestly not sure what any silver bullet might be, given Beijing’s ambitious plans and sheer determination. But, paradoxically given China's authoritarian governance system, popular (though certainly not electoral) democracy seems to be having the greatest effect so far. Political organizing---in the form of relatively large-scale protests against local officials in rural areas and farming collectives---has been a sort of feedback mechanism in China. If the amount of state usurpation gets too unbearable, local protests erupt, and local officials often tweak the policies accordingly. Sometimes, individual hold-outs remain, and development simply happens, literally, around them:
These kinds of protests have been occurring all over the Chinese hinterland in very localized ways. Consider these protesters Chinese versions of Jane Jacobs, who organized her Greenwich Village neighborhood to stop NY State developers from running highways through Washington Square Park and downtown Manhattan. Whether these local protests in China will put a dent in national policy is improbable---most are reactions to very local situations, and any effort to coordinate a national campaign for shared concerns would be difficult logistically, and would be squelched by authorities.
In the long-term, there's an argument to be made that urbanization itself might increase the amount of democracy in the Chinese political system as well. The political implications of density and shared space tend towards compromise; and common space of the sort that cities provide also serve as rallying grounds for political agitation---think of May 35th (the code name for the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests of "June 4th," a phrase that has been blocked on Chinese internet). That said, if urbanization succeeds in enriching people, it may also make them politically complacent by giving them just enough stake in the status quo to be acquiescent. And density may also make it easier for authorities to police populations and break up any budding political organization.
Nonetheless, a solution to the problems of China’s urbanization may well be democracy.
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